Bidu is scheduled to report earnings in 2 days (Apr. 27th). I usually don’t trade issues before earnings (too risky). However, I placed some Bidu bullish trades today.
Today’s trade: Bidu spread: Long 135 call, short 140 call, expire in 4 days. Spread cost: $4.15/pair. Potential profit: $0.85/pair.
Here is the reasoning.
- Here is my positions of bidu before my trades today: I am long bidu shares and short bidu Sept 105 call. There is still 7.6% profit left (time value/margin requirement) for 4.5 months. This is very safe (bidu has to drop $45 or ~30% before my profit will be hurt) but the return is no longer sexy anymore (annualized return of 20%). (This is why I say I can nearly guarantee 10% or more return under the current market conditions).
- The Chinese internet stocks, such as sina, sohu, have been reporting great earnings and the stocks have been soaring. Besides, Bidu has been reporting great earnings in the past quarters and its chart looks picture perfect. The near term market condition is bullish (chartadvisor.com and schaeffersresearch.com)
- Even if bidu misses and the stock drops, I will lose money on the spread that I created today. But the Sept 105 call will also drop in price. My plan, if this scenario plays out, is to roll up the Sept 105 call (a vertical roll up which will create more time value, hence create an annual return of more than 20%). So this spread acts as a hedge.
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